Some Kinetic Properties of a Deterministic Epidemic Confirmed by Computer Simulation

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Science  14 May 1965:
Vol. 148, Issue 3672, pp. 981-985
DOI: 10.1126/science.148.3672.981


Representative epidemic transients were generated by computer by a known, plausible mechanism. Accurate retrieval of the individual rate constants and confirmation of their predictive value resulted from a manual test of the mechanism by which the computer outputs were generated. The method is applicable in principle to any regenerative process opposed by exponential decay.