Market Penetration Characteristics for Energy Production and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Growth

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Science  31 Aug 1979:
Vol. 205, Issue 4409, pp. 896-898
DOI: 10.1126/science.205.4409.896


Estimates are given for the maximum rate at which fossil fuel consumption can be reduced by the introduction of noncarbon-based energy sources, according to the market penetration time concept. These estimates indicate an immediate need to implement a revised energy policy if major climatic changes induced by increased amounts of carbon dioxide are to be avoided in the next century. However, application of market penetration ideas to energy consumption is new and may not be valid for the prediction of future trends.