A Two-Tiered Approach to Long-Range Climate Forecasting

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Science  20 Aug 1993:
Vol. 261, Issue 5124, pp. 1026-1029
DOI: 10.1126/science.261.5124.1026


Long-range global climate forecasts were made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of seven large climatic events of the 1970s to 1990s by this technique are in good agreement with observations over many regions of the globe.