News & CommentRisk Assessment: A New Way to Ask the Experts

A New Way to Ask the Experts—Rating Radioactive Waste Risks

Science  08 Nov 1996:
Vol. 274, Issue 5289, pp. 913-914
DOI: 10.1126/science.274.5289.913


How do you assess the risks of rare but catastrophic events, like a volcanic eruption at the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository? That question has plagued science policy-makers for years, and now many geoscientists are using a new way to mathematically combine the risk and uncertainty estimates from a panel of experts. In the case of Yucca Mountain, this “expert elicitation” method has just yielded some surprising results.

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