Models Win Big in Forecasting El Niño

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Science  24 Apr 1998:
Vol. 280, Issue 5363, pp. 522-523
DOI: 10.1126/science.280.5363.522

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Predictions of the most recent El Niño were widely regarded as a stunning success: Forecasters warned of torrential rain in California this winter and drought in Indonesia, and they were right. But according to a recent ranking of which computer models do the best job of predicting this warming of the tropical Pacific and its effects on global weather patterns, if meteorologists had relied more heavily on their models, those predictions could have been even better.