News of the WeekSeismology

A Quieter Forecast for Southern California

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Science  10 Jul 1998:
Vol. 281, Issue 5374, pp. 155
DOI: 10.1126/science.281.5374.155b

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An official group of seismologists concluded 4 years ago that destructive temblors were likely to strike Southern California more frequently in coming decades because of the strain built up in the crust by an "earthquake deficit" over the past 150 years (Science, 28 January 1994, p. 460). But now an independent analysis and a review by seismologists, including one of the original panel members, both conclude that the deficit was due to accounting errors--and that the region is right on schedule for quakes.