A Brief Guide to Bayes Theorem

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Science  19 Nov 1999:
Vol. 286, Issue 5444, pp. 1461
DOI: 10.1126/science.286.5444.1461

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In making sense of new data, traditional statistical methods ignore the past. Bayesian techniques, in contrast, allow you to start with what you already believe and then see how new information changes your confidence in that belief. Putting Bayes theorem to work requires heavy calculus--now aided by computer models--but the fundamental concept is straightforward.