News FocusSTATISTICS

Revealing Uncertainties in Computer Models

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Science  11 Feb 2000:
Vol. 287, Issue 5455, pp. 960-961
DOI: 10.1126/science.287.5455.960

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Summary

Computer simulations give the impression of precision, but they are founded on a raft of assumptions, simplifications, and outright errors. New tools are needed, scientists say, to quantify the uncertainties inherent in calculations and to evaluate the validity of the models. But making uncertainties evident is a tough challenge, as evidenced by several recent workshops.