How Accurate Are Climate Simulations?

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Science  19 Apr 2002:
Vol. 296, Issue 5567, pp. 483-484
DOI: 10.1126/science.1070365

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How accurately do climate models reproduce today's climate and that of the past? In their Perspective, Smith et al. compare model errors with observational sampling and analysis errors. The authors find that today's models are within the observed uncertainty, at least with respect to the 100-year record of observed global sea surface temperature. They conclude that to ensure adequate future climate records, more attention must be given to limiting the growing dependent biases of today's climate records.