The Perils of Prognostication

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Science  30 Jun 2006:
Vol. 312, Issue 5782, pp. 1876-1877
DOI: 10.1126/science.1129403

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Expert Political Judgment. How Good Is It?. How Can We Know?. By Philip E. Tetlock. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2006. 337 pp. $35, £22.95. ISBN 0-691-12302-2. Paper, $19.95, £12.95. ISBN 0-691-12871-5.

Evaluating predictions from a range of experts, informed laity, and extrapolation of current trends, the author considers how we might recognize good political judgments and strategic forecasts.