Report

Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment

Science  01 Dec 2006:
Vol. 314, Issue 5804, pp. 1442-1445
DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

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Abstract

Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.

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