How Best to Look Forward?

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Science  13 Apr 2007:
Vol. 316, Issue 5822, pp. 202-203
DOI: 10.1126/science.1140778

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Useless Arithmetic. Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future. By Orrin H. Pilkey and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis. Columbia University Press, New York, 2007. 246 pp. $29.50, £19. ISBN 9780231132121.

Critiquing a series of examples, the authors argue that many quantitative models only provide a false sense of security and unwarranted confidence in predictions.