Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections

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Science  04 May 2007:
Vol. 316, Issue 5825, pp. 709
DOI: 10.1126/science.1136843

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  1. Fig. 1.

    Changes in key global climate parameters since 1973, compared with the scenarios of the IPCC (shown as dashed lines and gray ranges). (Top) Monthly carbon dioxide concentration and its trend line at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (blue), up to January 2007, from Scripps in collaboration with NOAA. ppm, parts per million. (Middle) Annual global-mean land and ocean combined surface temperature from GISS (red) and the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit (blue) up to 2006, with their trends. (Bottom) Sea-level data based primarily on tide gauges (annual, red) and from satellite altimeter (3-month data spacing, blue, up to mid-2006) and their trends. All trends are nonlinear trend lines and are computed with an embedding period of 11 years and a minimum roughness criterion at the end (6), except for the satellite altimeter where a linear trend was used because of the shortness of the series. For temperature and sea level, data are shown as deviations from the trend line value in 1990, the base year of the IPCC scenarios.