News of the WeekTropical Meteorology

A Cloudy Crystal Ball for the Coming Season's Hurricanes

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Science  29 May 2009:
Vol. 324, Issue 5931, pp. 1131
DOI: 10.1126/science.324_1131a

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A group of meteorologists that each year for 25 years has tried to decipher what the coming summer and fall have in store for hurricane country has graded itself for the first time. The researchers' statistical analysis credits their forecasts with a "modest" improvement over the baseline assumption that every season would be normal. Others concede that the group has shown some measurable skill in forecasting—just not much.