News & AnalysisEarthquake Prediction

A Quake May Have Hinted That It Was on the Way

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Science  18 Feb 2011:
Vol. 331, Issue 6019, pp. 836
DOI: 10.1126/science.331.6019.836

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Decades of monitoring have failed to turn up any warning sign of an imminent earthquake, and most seismologists have moved on to other problems. Now, however, a new analysis of decade-old, low-quality data from a large Turkish earthquake, reported on page 877 of this week's issue of Science, has revealed tantalizing signs of a quake precursor. The encouraging development comes from records of the magnitude-7.6 Izmit earthquake that struck just 100 kilometers from Istanbul in 1999.