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Global Seabird Response to Forage Fish Depletion—One-Third for the Birds

Science  23 Dec 2011:
Vol. 334, Issue 6063, pp. 1703-1706
DOI: 10.1126/science.1212928

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  1. Fig. 1

    Map of the distribution of seabird and prey species considered in our analysis.

  2. Fig. 2

    (A) Relationship between normalized annual breeding success of seabirds and normalized prey abundance. Each data point from all the time series was plotted with the predictions of a generalized additive model (GAM) (solid line). The gray area represents the 95% confidence interval of the fitted GAM. The threshold in the nonlinear relationship (black solid vertical line) and its 95% confidence interval (black dashed vertical lines) were detected from a change-point analysis. (B) Change in variance across the range of normalized food abundance ranging from –1.5 to 2 standard deviations in eight classes. Variance below the threshold was 1.8 times higher than above it. (C and D) Similar relationships were present when data were pooled (C) for species within ecosystems and (D) for species pooled among ecosystems using the best-fitting asymptotic model (table S2). The Arctic Tern (not shown) model fit was not significant (table S1). The colors in (A) and (C) represent the data set for each ecosystem and in (D) for each seabird species.

  3. Fig. 3

    Relationship between normalized annual breeding success of pooled seabird species and normalized prey abundance for the seven different ecosystems using the most parsimonious asymptotic model (table S2).

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