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Contours of peak warming. Contours of peak CO2-induced warming (as given by Eq. 3 in the Box) as a function of the starting date of the GMS and the implemented reduction rate of emissions. Parameters are C0 = 530 GtC, E0 = 9.3 GtC per year, β = 2°C (TtC)−1, and r = 1.8% per year. The later the GMS starts, the higher the required emissions reduction rate is for a given peak warming.
A closing door. (A) Contours of required emissions reduction rate s (% per year), derived from Eq. 3, as a function of the starting date of the GMS and the desired climate target. The red line indicates the achievable minimum climate target as a function of the starting date as given by Eq. 4. Climate targets increase exponentially with later starting years of the GMS and become unachievable in the gray shaded area. Parameters are as in the first figure. (B) Achievable minimum climate target for three values of the peak response to cumulative emissions, β, and the rate of emissions increase used in the first figure (solid curves, r = 1.8% per year), and a lower rate of emissions increase roughly representative of the past 10 years, r = 1.5% per year (dashed curves). Higher values of β imply higher peak warming.
