PerspectiveATMOSPHERE

Next Season's Hurricanes

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Science  07 Feb 2014:
Vol. 343, Issue 6171, pp. 618-619
DOI: 10.1126/science.1247759

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Summary

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are a hazard to life and property (1, 2), as was tragically apparent following Super Typhoon Haiyan's landfall in the Philippines in 2013 and Hurricane/extratropical system Sandy's landfall in the New York tri-state area in 2012. Yet TCs also provide vital water, sometimes relieving drought (3). Predictions of the path and intensity of individual TCs are usually sufficiently good several days in advance that action can be taken. In contrast, predictions of seasonal TC activity months in advance must still be made more regionally relevant to produce information that can be acted on, for example, to improve storm preparedness.