PerspectiveAtmospheric Science

From Past to Future Warming

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Science  21 Feb 2014:
Vol. 343, Issue 6173, pp. 844-845
DOI: 10.1126/science.1249368

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In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is “extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together” (1). This conclusion was based on an expert assessment drawing on multiple analyses of observed temperature changes. However, substantial uncertainties remain, especially in estimating the human contribution to regional temperature change and extreme events.