Ecological and evolutionary effects of fragmentation on infectious disease dynamics

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Science  13 Jun 2014:
Vol. 344, Issue 6189, pp. 1289-1293
DOI: 10.1126/science.1253621

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  1. Fig. 1 Metapopulation dynamics of P. plantaginis in the Åland islands across >4000 host populations and 12 years.

    (A) The fraction of occupied, extinct, colonized, and persisting pathogen populations for the survey period 2001 to 2012. (B) The absolute number of occupied populations and the number of colonized, extinct, and persisting populations for each year. (C) Frequency distribution of occupancy according to hierarchic level: metapopulation, regional districts, semi-independent networks, and populations.

  2. Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of host and pathogen populations.

    (A) Distribution of the host populations. (B to D) Colonized (yellow circles), extinct (red triangles), and persistent (blue squares) pathogen populations for a year with low, average, and high occupancy, respectively. (E) Fine-scale extinction-colonization dynamics in the regional district of Lemland in 2012, where black dots represent uncolonized host populations.

  3. Fig. 3 Averaged disease occupancy in Åland between 2001 and 2012.

    (A) Regional districts, (B) semi-independent networks within one of the regions [marked as “B” in (A)], and (C) populations within one semi-independent network [marked as “C” in (B)].

  4. Fig. 4 The impact of environmental and spatial variables on disease dynamics.

    (A) Plant population area (correlates with number of individuals) and (B) the presence of a road had a positive effect on population occupancy by the pathogen. In (A), a dashed red trend line is shown. (C) Posterior Bayesian estimates for the range parameter for occupancy (solid blue line), colonizations (yellow dotted line), and extinctions (dashed red line). (D) Probability of colonization of an unoccupied host population as a function of the distance to the nearest persisting pathogen population (up to 15 km) for all years. (E) Average August rainfall was higher in populations that remained unoccupied (uncolonized) than in populations that became colonized by the pathogen during 2011. Error bars indicate SEM. (F) Increasing patch shadow reduces the pathogen average occupancy.

  5. Fig. 5 The impact of host network configuration on metapopulation dynamics and disease resistance.

    (A) Extinction probability of the pathogen populations in year 2012 from plant populations that were colonized in the previous year increased as a function of host population connectivity (generalized linear model: SH; F1,183 = 7.17, P = 0.008). (B) Host resistance was higher in well-connected than in isolated populations (linear model: F1,21 = 4.63, P = 0.0437).