Technical Comments

Response to Comment on “Quantifying long-term scientific impact”

Science  11 Jul 2014:
Vol. 345, Issue 6193, pp. 149
DOI: 10.1126/science.1248961

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Abstract

Wang, Mei, and Hicks claim that they observed large mean prediction errors when using our model. We find that their claims are a simple consequence of overfitting, which can be avoided by standard regularization methods. Here, we show that our model provides an effective means to identify papers that may be subject to overfitting, and the model, with or without prior treatment, outperforms the proposed naïve approach.

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