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Deeper penetration of large earthquakes on seismically quiescent faults

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Science  10 Jun 2016:
Vol. 352, Issue 6291, pp. 1293-1297
DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf1496

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A microseismic turn off

Certain strike-slip faults do not have the expected number of microearthquakes between larger earthquakes. Jiang and Lapusta suggest that this behavior is down to what the last big earthquake looked like. They found that microseismicity turns off if an earthquake's rupture runs deeper than the fault's locking depth. This appears to be the case along the famous San Andreas Fault and also along other strike-slip faults around the world. The discovery may allow for better estimates of historic earthquake magnitudes and improve hazard assessments.

Science, this issue p. 1293

Abstract

Why many major strike-slip faults known to have had large earthquakes are silent in the interseismic period is a long-standing enigma. One would expect small earthquakes to occur at least at the bottom of the seismogenic zone, where deeper aseismic deformation concentrates loading. We suggest that the absence of such concentrated microseismicity indicates deep rupture past the seismogenic zone in previous large earthquakes. We support this conclusion with numerical simulations of fault behavior and observations of recent major events. Our modeling implies that the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California penetrated below the seismogenic zone by at least 3 to 5 kilometers. Our findings suggest that such deeper ruptures may occur on other major fault segments, potentially increasing the associated seismic hazard.

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