Essays

Predicting armed conflict: Time to adjust our expectations?

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Science  03 Feb 2017:
Vol. 355, Issue 6324, pp. 474-476
DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4483

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Abstract

This Essay provides an introduction to the general challenges of predicting political violence, particularly compared with predicting other types of events (such as earthquakes). What is possible? What is less realistic? We aim to debunk myths about predicting violence, as well as to illustrate the substantial progress in this field.

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