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Eutrophication will increase during the 21st century as a result of precipitation changes

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Science  28 Jul 2017:
Vol. 357, Issue 6349, pp. 405-408
DOI: 10.1126/science.aan2409

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More rain means more pollution

Nitrogen input from river runoff is a major cause of eutrophication in estuaries and coastal waters. This is a serious problem that is widely expected to intensify as climate change strengthens the hydrological cycle. To address the current lack of adequate analysis, Sinha et al. present estimates of riverine nitrogen loading for the continental United States, based on projections of precipitation derived from climate models (see the Perspective by Seitzinger and Phillips). Anticipated changes in precipitation patterns are forecast to cause large and robust increases in nitrogen fluxes by the end of the century.

Science, this issue p. 405; see also p. 350

Abstract

Eutrophication, or excessive nutrient enrichment, threatens water resources across the globe. We show that climate change–induced precipitation changes alone will substantially increase (19 ± 14%) riverine total nitrogen loading within the continental United States by the end of the century for the “business-as-usual” scenario. The impacts, driven by projected increases in both total and extreme precipitation, will be especially strong for the Northeast and the corn belt of the United States. Offsetting this increase would require a 33 ± 24% reduction in nitrogen inputs, representing a massive management challenge. Globally, changes in precipitation are especially likely to also exacerbate eutrophication in India, China, and Southeast Asia. It is therefore imperative that water quality management strategies account for the impact of projected future changes in precipitation on nitrogen loading.

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