Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations

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Science  22 Dec 2017:
Vol. 358, Issue 6370, pp. 1610-1614
DOI: 10.1126/science.aao0432

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  • RE: Why not show the actual history curves you are projecting?

    Thanks for a wonderfully thorough analysis. I think it needs to be compared to the actual history curves of temperature and migration. It would expose more of the 'wild card' factors for one thing. I have years of experience with regularizing time-series data to expose nature's true story arcs, by suppressing the 3rd derivatives to eliminate jittery local noise (suppressing the "jerk"). It's a bit like redefining a spline at every point. It's really worth it, often exposing organizational changes in the underlying natural systems being observed. I'd be glad to discuss my pattern recognition methods, published in IJPRAI. A PPT for a recent talk is:, email on the 1st slide, research links on other slides.

    Competing Interests: None declared.

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