Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Connor Nolan; Jonathan T. Overpeck; Judy R. M. Allen; Patricia M. Anderson; Julio L. Betancourt; Heather A. Binney; Simon Brewer; Mark B. Bush; Brian M. Chase; Rachid Cheddadi; Morteza Djamali; John Dodson; Mary E. Edwards; William D. Gosling; Simon Haberle; Sara C. Hotchkiss; Brian Huntley; Sarah J. Ivory; A. Peter Kershaw; Soo-Hyun Kim; Claudio Latorre; Michelle Leydet; Anne-Marie Lézine; Kam-Biu Liu; Yao Liu; A. V. Lozhkin; Matt S. McGlone; Robert A. Marchant; Arata Momohara; Patricio I. Moreno; Stefanie Müller; Bette L. Otto-Bliesner; Caiming Shen; Janelle Stevenson; Hikaru Takahara; Pavel E. Tarasov; John Tipton; Annie Vincens; Chengyu Weng; Qinghai Xu; Zhuo Zheng; Stephen T. Jackson

doi:10.1126/science.aan5360

Report

Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Connor Nolan¹,
Jonathan T. Overpeck ²,¹,
Judy R. M. Allen³,
Patricia M. Anderson⁴,
Julio L. Betancourt⁵,
Heather A. Binney⁶,
Simon Brewer⁷,
Mark B. Bush⁸,
Brian M. Chase⁹,
Rachid Cheddadi⁹,
Morteza Djamali¹⁰,
John Dodson¹¹,¹²,
Mary E. Edwards⁶,¹³,
William D. Gosling¹⁴,¹⁵,
Simon Haberle¹⁶,
Sara C. Hotchkiss¹⁷,
Brian Huntley³,
Sarah J. Ivory¹⁸,
A. Peter Kershaw¹⁹,
Soo-Hyun Kim¹⁷,
Claudio Latorre²⁰,
Michelle Leydet¹⁰,
Anne-Marie Lézine²¹,
Kam-Biu Liu²²,
Yao Liu²³,
A. V. Lozhkin²⁴,
Matt S. McGlone²⁵,
Robert A. Marchant²⁶,
Arata Momohara²⁷,
Patricio I. Moreno²⁸,
Stefanie Müller²⁹,
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner³⁰,
Caiming Shen³¹,
Janelle Stevenson³²,
Hikaru Takahara³³,
Pavel E. Tarasov²⁹,
John Tipton³⁴,
Annie Vincens³⁵,
Chengyu Weng³⁶,
Qinghai Xu³⁷,
Zhuo Zheng³⁸,
Stephen T. Jackson ³⁹,¹,*

¹Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
²School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
³Department of Biosciences, University of Durham, Durham DH1 3LE, UK.
⁴Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
⁵National Research Program, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA.
⁶Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK.
⁷Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA.
⁸Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL 32901, USA.
⁹Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UMR 5554, Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier, Université Montpellier, Bat. 22, CC061, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier, France.
¹⁰Aix Marseille Université, Avignon Université, CNRS, IRD, Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie, 13545 Aix-en Provence, France.
¹¹Palaeontology, Geobiology and Earth Archives Research Centre (PANGEA), University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.
¹²State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 71002, Shaanxi, China.
¹³College of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Alaska–Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.
¹⁴Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, 1090 GE Amsterdam, Netherlands.
¹⁵School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, UK.
¹⁶Department of Archaeology and Natural History, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
¹⁷Department of Botany, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
¹⁸Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16802, USA.
¹⁹School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia.
²⁰Departamento de Ecología, Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity (IEB), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
²¹Sorbonne Université, CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN/IPSL Laboratory, 4 Place Jussieu, 75005 Paris, France.
²²Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA.
²³School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA.
²⁴North-East Interdisciplinary Scientific Research Institute, Far East Branch Russian Academy of Sciences, Magadan 685000, Russia.
²⁵Landcare Research, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand.
²⁶Department of Environment, York Institute for Tropical Ecosystems, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK.
²⁷Graduate School of Horticulture, Chiba University, Matsudo-shi, Chiba 271-8510, Japan.
²⁸Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, IEB and (CR)2, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
²⁹Institute of Geological Sciences, Freie Universität Berlin, D-12249 Berlin, Germany.
³⁰National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.
³¹Yunnan Normal University, Key Laboratory of Plateau Lake Ecology and Global Change, Kunming, Yunnan 650092, China.
³²School of Culture, History, and Language, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
³³Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Kyoto Prefectural University, Kyoto, 606-8522, Japan.
³⁴Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR 72701, USA.
³⁵Centre Européen de Recherche et d’Enseignement des Géosciences de l’Environnement (CEREGE), 13545 Aix-en-Provence, France.
³⁶School of Ocean and Earth Science, Tongji University, Shanghai, China.
³⁷Institute of Nihewan Archaeology and College of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China.
³⁸School of Earth Science and Engineering, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Geodynamics and Geohazards, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.
³⁹Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.

↵*Corresponding author. Email: stjackson{at}usgs.gov

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Science 31 Aug 2018:
Vol. 361, Issue 6405, pp. 920-923
DOI: 10.1126/science.aan5360

Connor Nolan

Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.

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Jonathan T. Overpeck

School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.

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Judy R. M. Allen

Department of Biosciences, University of Durham, Durham DH1 3LE, UK.

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Patricia M. Anderson

Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.

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Julio L. Betancourt

National Research Program, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA.

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Heather A. Binney

Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK.

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Simon Brewer

Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA.

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Mark B. Bush

Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL 32901, USA.

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Brian M. Chase

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UMR 5554, Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier, Université Montpellier, Bat. 22, CC061, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier, France.

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Rachid Cheddadi

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Morteza Djamali

Aix Marseille Université, Avignon Université, CNRS, IRD, Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie, 13545 Aix-en Provence, France.

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John Dodson

Palaeontology, Geobiology and Earth Archives Research Centre (PANGEA), University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 71002, Shaanxi, China.

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Mary E. Edwards

Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK.College of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Alaska–Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.

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William D. Gosling

Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, 1090 GE Amsterdam, Netherlands.School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, UK.

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Simon Haberle

Department of Archaeology and Natural History, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.

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Sara C. Hotchkiss

Department of Botany, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA.

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Brian Huntley

Department of Biosciences, University of Durham, Durham DH1 3LE, UK.

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Sarah J. Ivory

Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16802, USA.

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A. Peter Kershaw

School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia.

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Soo-Hyun Kim

Department of Botany, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA.

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Claudio Latorre

Departamento de Ecología, Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity (IEB), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.

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Michelle Leydet

Aix Marseille Université, Avignon Université, CNRS, IRD, Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie, 13545 Aix-en Provence, France.

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Anne-Marie Lézine

Sorbonne Université, CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN/IPSL Laboratory, 4 Place Jussieu, 75005 Paris, France.

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Kam-Biu Liu

Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA.

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Yao Liu

School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA.

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A. V. Lozhkin

North-East Interdisciplinary Scientific Research Institute, Far East Branch Russian Academy of Sciences, Magadan 685000, Russia.

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Matt S. McGlone

Landcare Research, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand.

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Robert A. Marchant

Department of Environment, York Institute for Tropical Ecosystems, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK.

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Arata Momohara

Graduate School of Horticulture, Chiba University, Matsudo-shi, Chiba 271-8510, Japan.

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Patricio I. Moreno

Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, IEB and (CR)2, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.

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Stefanie Müller

Institute of Geological Sciences, Freie Universität Berlin, D-12249 Berlin, Germany.

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Bette L. Otto-Bliesner

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.

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Caiming Shen

Yunnan Normal University, Key Laboratory of Plateau Lake Ecology and Global Change, Kunming, Yunnan 650092, China.

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Janelle Stevenson

School of Culture, History, and Language, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.

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Hikaru Takahara

Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Kyoto Prefectural University, Kyoto, 606-8522, Japan.

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Pavel E. Tarasov

Institute of Geological Sciences, Freie Universität Berlin, D-12249 Berlin, Germany.

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John Tipton

Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR 72701, USA.

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Annie Vincens

Centre Européen de Recherche et d’Enseignement des Géosciences de l’Environnement (CEREGE), 13545 Aix-en-Provence, France.

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Chengyu Weng

School of Ocean and Earth Science, Tongji University, Shanghai, China.

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Qinghai Xu

Institute of Nihewan Archaeology and College of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China.

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Zhuo Zheng

School of Earth Science and Engineering, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Geodynamics and Geohazards, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.

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Stephen T. Jackson

Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.

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For correspondence: stjackson@usgs.gov

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Future predictions from paleoecology

Terrestrial ecosystems will be transformed by current anthropogenic change, but the extent of this change remains a challenge to predict. Nolan et al. looked at documented vegetational and climatic changes at almost 600 sites worldwide since the last glacial maximum 21,000 years ago. From this, they determined vegetation responses to temperature changes of 4° to 7°C. They went on to estimate the extent of ecosystem changes under current similar (albeit more rapid) scenarios of warming. Without substantial mitigation efforts, terrestrial ecosystems are at risk of major transformation in composition and structure.

Science, this issue p. 920

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Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Future predictions from paleoecology

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