Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1) : Early Findings

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Science  11 May 2009:

DOI: 10.1126/science.1176062

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  • More Evidence in the Same Direction

    There is another important reason to believe that the number of influenza cases declared in Mexico must be much larger than reported by Mexican health officials: case definitions ("Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): Early findings," C. Fraser et al., Reports, 19 June 2009, p. 1557; published online 14 May 2009). Mexico's definition for this outbreak included not only "influenza symptoms" but also "re...

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    Competing Interests: None declared.
  • Response to Pandemic Influenza Study Findings

    It is quite right to suggest that a significant correlation exists between airline travelers from Mexico and the detected confirmed cases of influenza A (H1N1) worldwide ("Pandemic potential of a strain of Influenza A (H1N1): early findings," C. Fraser et al., Reports, 19 June 2009, published online 14 May 2009). When we compare the ratio of deaths per cases in Mexico on the days of 5 May 2009 and 25 May 2009 we observ...

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    Competing Interests: None declared.
  • Uncertainties in Predicting A (H1N1) Pandemic Spread

    The Report by C. Fraser et al. describes the early stages of the recent H1N1 (2009) influenza epidemic emerging from Mexico ("Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1)," 19 June, p. 1557; published online 14 May 2009). It uses mathematical and phylogenetic modeling techniques to derive various epidemiological parameters to describe the early stages of the outbreak of this novel virus. Given the uncertain na...

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    Competing Interests: None declared.