The elusive rise in the American birthrate

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Science  29 Apr 1977:
Vol. 196, Issue 4289, pp. 500-503
DOI: 10.1126/science.850792


In summary, (i) neither an immediate nor a dramatic increase in fertility will be required during the next few years for young married women to realize their family-size expectations; (ii) annual fertility trends in California do not provide a useful indicator of annual fertility trends at the national level; (iii) recent economic trends appear to merit considerable attention in an assessment of furture fertility prospects. An examination of recent economic conditions suggests that a substantial increase in annual fertility is unlikely to occur immediately. It would be more likely to occur when the current unfavorable economic conditions have been eliminated.