Regular Intervals Between Hawaiian Earthquakes: Implications for Predicting the Next Event

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Science  07 Nov 1986:
Vol. 234, Issue 4777, pp. 726-728
DOI: 10.1126/science.234.4777.726


During the years 1941 through 1983 five earthquake mainshocks of moderate magnitude occurred at regular intervals of 10.5 ± 1.5 years within a 6-kilometer radius in Hawaii. It is proposed that these Kaoiki earthquakes will continue to occur at regular intervals because the strain accumulation rate and the strained volume remain constant. With appropriate instrumentation, it may be possible to refine predictions of subsequent Kaoiki earthquakes.