Forecasting Damaging Earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States

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Science  21 Sep 1990:
Vol. 249, Issue 4975, pp. 1412-1416
DOI: 10.1126/science.249.4975.1412


Analysis of seismograph network data, earthquake catalogs from 1727 to 1982, and paleoseismic data for the central and eastern United States indicate that the Poisson probability of a damaging earthquake (magnitude ≥ 6.0) occurring during the next 30 years is at a moderate to high level (0.4 to 0.6). When differences in seismic wave attenuation are taken into account, the central and eastern United States has approximately two-thirds the likelihood of California to produce an earthquake with comparable damage area and societal impact within the next 30 years.

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