How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise?

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Science  18 Mar 2005:
Vol. 307, Issue 5716, pp. 1769-1772
DOI: 10.1126/science.1106663


  • Fig. 1.

    (A) Time series of CO2 concentrations for the various scenarios. (B) Time series of globally averaged surface air temperatures from the PCM and CCSM3. (C) Same as (B), except that sea level rise comes from thermal expansion only. In (C), the control drift is first subtracted from each experiment, and then in (B) and (C), the base period for calculating anomalies is 1980–1999. Solid lines are ensemble means, and shading indicates the range of ensemble members. Line identifiers for the various scenarios and the two models are given in each panel.

  • Fig. 2.

    Surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century (ensemble average for years 2080–2099) minus a reference period at the end of the 20th century (ensemble average for years 1980–1999) from 20th-century simulations with natural and anthropogenic forcings. (A) The PCM for the B1 scenario. (B) The CCSM3 for the B1 scenario. (C) The PCM for the A1B scenario. (D) The CCSM3 for the A1B scenario. (E) The PCM for the A2 scenario. (F) The CCSM3 for the A2 scenario. (G and H) Temperature commitment for GHG concentrations stabilized at year 2000 values; ensemble average for years 2080–2099 minus a reference period ensemble average for years 1980–1999 from 20th-century simulations. More than 95% of the values in each panel are significant at the 10% level from a Student's t test, and a similar proportion exceed 1 SD of the intraensemble standard deviations.

  • Fig. 3.

    Ensemble mean percent increase of globally averaged surface air temperature and sea level rise from the two models computed relative to values for the base period 1980–1999 for the experiment in which GHG concentrations and all other atmospheric constituents were stabilized at the end of the 20th century.


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