Technical Comments

Comment on “Quantifying long-term scientific impact”

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Science  11 Jul 2014:
Vol. 345, Issue 6193, pp. 149
DOI: 10.1126/science.1248770


Wang et al. (Reports, 4 October 2013, p. 127) claimed high prediction power for their model of citation dynamics. We replicate their analysis but find discouraging results: 14.75% papers are estimated with unreasonably large μ (>5) and λ (>10) and correspondingly enormous prediction errors. The prediction power is even worse than simply using short-term citations to approximate long-term citations.

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