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Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures

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Science  27 Feb 2015:
Vol. 347, Issue 6225, pp. 988-991
DOI: 10.1126/science.1257856
  • Fig. 1 CMIP5-All ensemble means shown with individual model means.

    (A) Northern Hemisphere SST+SAT. (B) North Atlantic SST. (C) North Pacific SST. Ensemble mean, black curves; individual model means, colored curves. Thin black line depicts the 95% confidence limits of the model mean determined via bootstrap resampling. Blue line depicts observed temperatures.

  • Fig. 2 CMIP5-All mean series and estimated 1-σ bounds for mean series under the assumption of statistical independence of internal variability among ensemble members.

    (A) AMO. (B) PMO. (C) NMO. Solid lines indicate mean of N-1 realizations; dashed lines indicate estimated 1-σ bounds determined by using detrending (blue), global SST regression (red), and target region regression (black). Individual realizations of CMIP5-All internal variability as well as results for target region differencing are shown in the supplementary materials (fig. S2).

  • Fig. 3 Semi-empirical estimate of AMO, PMO, and NMO based on target region regression using historical climate model realizations.

    (A) CMIP5-GISS. (B) CMIP5-AIE. (C) CMIP-All. In (A) to (C), blue, AMO; green, PMO; and black, NMO. Bivariate regression-based approximation of NMO (red) strongly correlates (R2 = 0.86/0.88/0.91 for CMIP5-All/CMIP5-GISS, CMIP5-AIE, respectively) with semi-empirical NMO estimate (black). 95% confidence limits of the AMO, PMO, and NMO CMIP5-All means were determined by using the ensemble of target region mean series resulting from bootstrap resampling (Fig. 1) and are shown as colored shading.

Supplementary Materials

  • Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures

    Byron A. Steinman, Michael E. Mann, Sonya K. Miller

    Materials/Methods, Supplementary Text, Tables, Figures, and/or References

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    • Materials and Methods
    • Supplementary Text
    • Figs. S1 to S7
    • Tables S1 and S2
    • References (5358)

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