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Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans

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Science  01 May 2015:
Vol. 348, Issue 6234, pp. 567-570
DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa6635
  • Fig. 1 Predictors of extinction risk in the marine fossil record.

    (A to I) Panels show scaled marginal influence of predictors on genus extinction risk for subinterval models and a model based on the entire Neogene-Pleistocene (lines: median; shaded regions: 80% confidence interval). y-axis values above 0 indicate a tendency for genera with a given predictor value to go extinct, and values below 0 indicate a tendency to survive. Occupancy, occurrences, and number of species per genus were log transformed and rescaled within each subinterval to reduce the effects of differential sampling intensity.

  • Fig. 2 Geographic distribution of mean intrinsic risk for present-day genera across coastal biogeographic provinces for six major taxonomic groups.

    (A to F) Scale bars indicate mean intrinsic risk as a multiple of the geometric mean across all groups. Color scales indicate a fixed threefold range of intrinsic risk centered on the geometric mean risk for a given group.

  • Fig. 3 Hotspots of human impact and velocity of climate change overlaid on mean intrinsic risk.

    Colored regions indicate mean intrinsic extinction risk of all genera that occur in a given province as a multiple of the geometric mean risk across all provinces. Outlined and hatched provinces indicate areas above the 80th percentile for mean human impact (2) and velocity of climate change (1), respectively.

Supplementary Materials

  • Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans

    Seth Finnegan, Sean C. Anderson, Paul G. Harnik, Carl Simpson, Derek P. Tittensor, Jarrett E. Byrnes, Zoe V. Finkel, David R. Lindberg, Lee Hsiang Liow, Rowan Lockwood, Heike K. Lotze, Craig R. McClain, Jenny L. McGuire, Aaron O’Dea, John M. Pandolfi

    Materials/Methods, Supplementary Text, Tables, Figures, and/or References

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    • Materials and Methods
    • Figs. S1 to S27
    • Tables S1 to S3
    • References (4575)
    Appendix S1
    References for the Paleobiology Database

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