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Research opportunities to advance solar energy utilization

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Science  22 Jan 2016:
Vol. 351, Issue 6271, aad1920
DOI: 10.1126/science.aad1920

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  • RE: Research Opportunities to Advance solar energy utilization

    CRISPR gene editing will result in 15 billions because human life expectancy will nearly double. This means world energy will be:
    World Energy = 8.5 EJ/a + 4.5 EJ/a * Exp(0.0225/a * (t - 1800)),
    requiring 40 terawatts-electric average power generation by 2100, equivalent to 120 terawatts-thermal energy. Sufficient utility-scale energy storage to average 40 terawatts wind and solar energy, ~2 tarawatt-a, costing ~3000 trillion USD at 100 USD/kWh, will never exist. Minus utility-scale energy storage, wind, solar and big hydro will never average more than 2 terawatt's electric generation, a negligible contribution.
    Mitigating CO2 requires zero-carbon generation, as thermal energy to be:
    Zero carbon energy = 0.00060 EJ-electric/a * 3 Jthermal/Jelectric *
    Exp(0.05 * (a - 1800)) .
    Atomic power hast to continue expanding 5%/a from 2020. Otherwise atmospheric CO2 will increase to multiples of preindustrial 280 pp.
    CO2 model assumes biofuels contributions is:
    Biofuel energy = 13 EJ-thermal/a * Exp(0.007/a * (t - 1800).
    Only atomic power can deliver the required 50 terawatt zero-carbon electricity. Resulting atmospheric carbon follows:
    ppm-C = (2/3) * 0.0080536 * [(4.5/0.0225)
    * {Exp(0.0225 * (t - 1800)) - 1.0} + 8.5 * (t - 1800) - (13/0.007)
    * {Exp(0.007 * (t - 1800)) - 1.0} - (0.0006 * 3/0.05)
    * {Exp(0.05 * (t - 1800)) - 1.0}] + 280 ppm-C preindustrial
    Above assumes ocean continues ab...

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    Competing Interests: None declared.

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