Research Article

Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer

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Science  15 Jul 2016:
Vol. 353, Issue 6296, pp. 269-274
DOI: 10.1126/science.aae0061
  • Fig. 1 Monthly averaged Antarctic total ozone column for October and September, from SBUV and South Pole station observations and a series of model calculations.

    Total ozone data measured at the geographic South Pole are from Dobson observations (filled circles) for October (Top) and balloon sondes (open circles) for September (Bottom), when there is not sufficient sunlight for the Dobson. SBUV data for each month are compared with model runs averaged over the polar cap latitude band that is accessible by the instrument; South Pole station data are compared with simulations for 85°S to 90°S.

  • Fig. 2 Trends in Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar cap ozone profiles in September

    Ozone data from balloons at the Syowa (69°S, 39.58°E) (Left) and South Pole (Right) stations, along with model simulations averaged over the polar cap and over 85°S to 90°S, respectively, are shown versus pressure. The shading represents the uncertainties on the trends at the 90% statistical confidence interval.

  • Fig. 3 Trends in total ozone abundance (TOZ) by month from 2000 to 2014.

    (Top) Monthly and polar cap–averaged SBUV satellite observations, together with model simulations masked to the satellite coverage. Error bars denote 90% statistical confidence intervals. (Bottom) Contributions to the simulated monthly trends in total ozone abundance driven by dynamics and temperature (vol-clean minus chem-only), chemistry only (chem-only), and volcanoes (chem-dyn-vol minus vol-clean). In austral winter, SBUV measurements do not extend to 63°S; therefore, the model averages for those months cover 63°S to 90°S (open bars).

  • Fig. 4 Model-calculated percentage changes in local concentrations of ozone due to a series of moderate volcanic eruptions.

    The results (chem-dyn-vol minus vol-clean simulations) are averaged over the Antarctic polar cap as a function of pressure and month. Volcanic eruptions that have dominated the changes are indicated, with tropical eruptions at the bottom and higher-latitude eruptions at the top. An, Anatahan; Ca, Calbuco; Ch, Chaiten; Ke, Kelut; Ll, Llaima; Ma, Manam; Me, Merapi; Na, Nabro; NS, Negra Sierra; PC, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle; PF, Piton de la Fournaise; Ra, Rabaul (also referred to as Tavurvur); Ru, Ruang; Rv, Reventador; SA, Sangeang Api; SH, Soufriere Hills.

  • Fig. 5 September size of the ozone hole and day of year when the hole exceeds 12 million km2

    (Left) Annual size of the September monthly averaged ozone hole, (defined as the region where the total ozone amount is less than 220 DU,) from TOMS/OMI satellite observations and model simulations. Trends in the TOMS/OMI observations (heavy dashed black line) and the chem-dyn-vol model calculations (heavy dashed red line) from 2000 to 2015 are also indicated. (Right) Annual day of the year when the size of the ozone hole exceeds 12 million km2 (and remains above that value for at least 3 days) in the TOMS/OMI observations and model simulations.

  • Fig. 6 Daily size of the ozone hole.

    Daily measurements (Top) and model calculations (Middle and Bottom) of the size of the Antarctic ozone hole versus day of year for different time intervals, with 2015 shown in black. The dashed black line in the top panel denotes the 2015 TOMS/OMI data after the period covered by the model runs.

Supplementary Materials

  • Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer

    Susan Solomon, Diane J. Ivy, Doug Kinnison, Michael J. Mills, Ryan R. Neely III, Anja Schmidt

    Materials/Methods, Supplementary Text, Tables, Figures, and/or References

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    • Materials and Methods
    • Figs. S1 to S4
    • Tables S1 to S3
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