Policy ForumEpidemiology

Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America

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Science  22 Jul 2016:
Vol. 353, Issue 6297, pp. 353-354
DOI: 10.1126/science.aag0219
  • Zika transmission dynamics.

    (Top) Publicly available surveillance data on weekly suspected and laboratory-confirmed Zika cases in Brazil 2015–16 overlaid with estimates of R [running 5-week average (green) shown, centered on the middle week]. R = 1 threshold shown as dashed line. See SM for other countries and sources, estimation methods, and weekly infections. (Center and bottom) Typical simulated time series of Zika weekly infection incidence in a population of 600 million for two scenarios: no interventions (blue line) and with interventions that decrease mosquito life span by 20% for 1 year during the initial epidemic (red line). Incidence is plotted on a nonlinear scale to allow later epidemics to be resolved clearly. (Insets) (left) Incidence dynamics in the 20 spatial regions being modeled and (right) the age distribution of infections, for the first two epidemic periods without interventions. Full details are provided in the SM.

  • Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America

    Neil M. Ferguson, Zulma M. Cucunubá, Ilaria Dorigatti, Gemma L. Nedjati-Gilani, Christl A. Donnelly, Maria-Gloria Basáñez, Pierre Nouvellet, Justin Lessler

    Materials/Methods, Supplementary Text, Tables, Figures, and/or References

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    • Materials and Methods
    • Supplementary Text
    • Figs. S1 to S14
    • Tables S1 to S6
    • References

    Additional Data

    Data S1

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