ReportsEcology

Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems

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Science  28 Oct 2016:
Vol. 354, Issue 6311, pp. 465-468
DOI: 10.1126/science.aah5015

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A warming limit for the Mediterranean basin

Pollen cores from sediments provide rich detail on the history of vegetation and climate in the Mediterranean during the Holocene (the most recent ~10,000 years). Guiot and Cramer used this information as a baseline against which to compare predictions of future climate and vegetation under different climate-change scenarios. Vegetation and land-use systems observed in the Holocene records may persist under a 1.5°C warming above preindustrial temperature levels. A 2°C warming, however, is likely over the next century to produce ecosystems in the Mediterranean basin that have no analog in the past 10,000 years.

Science, this issue p. 465

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