Perspectives

How high will the seas rise?

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Science  16 Dec 2016:
Vol. 354, Issue 6318, pp. 1375-1377
DOI: 10.1126/science.aak9460

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  • RE: How high may the seas really rise?
    • Nils-Axel Mörner, Sea level specialist, Former head of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics at Stockholm University, President of Independent Committee on Geoethics

    ”Recent estimates suggest that global mean sea level rise could exceed 2 m by 2100”, the Oppenheimer and Alley claim. But this is physically impossible; it would upset our firm observational facts, accumulated knowledge through the centuries and physical laws of rates and calories for ice melting. When the big land-ice masses of the Last Ice Age melted at a remarkable rapid rate under exceptionally strong climate forcing, sea level only rose at a rate of about 10 mm per year (1.0 m per century). Today, sea level can only rise at a fraction of that rate – hence, what the authors’ claim is simply physically impossible.
    Quod erat demonstrandum: http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2016.711096

    Competing Interests: None declared.
  • How high will rise the sea level deceit?

    Ignoring climate models which predict sea levels could rise by an average of more than two meters by 2100 could prove “disastrous” according to Oppenheimer & Alley (2016). However, supporting what seems to be only the latest sea level narrative of the many proposed in human history could have been even worse. Nothing measured so far proves the climate models are doing a proper job predicting sea level rises, as they are failing already to represent the past and the present.
    There have been many end of the world predictions produced so far. All these predictions failed to come true. The latest “Table of Relative Mean Sea Level Secular Trends derived from PSMSL RLR Data” Last update 23-Feb-2016 of PSMSL (2016) includes 722 tide gauges covering on average 53.86 years, minimum 21, maximum 189. The relative rate of rise of sea levels is on average +1.39 mm/year, minimum -17.63 mm/year, maximum +10.25 mm/year.
    As tide gauges of record length less than 60 years are not indicative of any long term trend due to the multi-decadal oscillations, and 20 years long records are not certainly providing an indication of the relative rate of rise over 100 years, we may consider the 61 tide gauges with at least 100 years of data.
    This subset of tide gauges has average coverage 125.87 years, minimum 100, maximum 189. The relative rate of rise of sea levels is now on average +0.38 mm/year, minimum -7.78 mm/year, maximum +6.75 mm/year.
    The distribution of the relativ...

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    Competing Interests: None declared.