Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

Gretta T. Pecl; Miguel B. Araújo; Johann D. Bell; Julia Blanchard; Timothy C. Bonebrake; I-Ching Chen; Timothy D. Clark; Robert K. Colwell; Finn Danielsen; Birgitta Evengård; Lorena Falconi; Simon Ferrier; Stewart Frusher; Raquel A. Garcia; Roger B. Griffis; Alistair J. Hobday; Charlene Janion-Scheepers; Marta A. Jarzyna; Sarah Jennings; Jonathan Lenoir; Hlif I. Linnetved; Victoria Y. Martin; Phillipa C. McCormack; Jan McDonald; Nicola J. Mitchell; Tero Mustonen; John M. Pandolfi; Nathalie Pettorelli; Ekaterina Popova; Sharon A. Robinson; Brett R. Scheffers; Justine D. Shaw; Cascade J. B. Sorte; Jan M. Strugnell; Jennifer M. Sunday; Mao-Ning Tuanmu; Adriana Vergés; Cecilia Villanueva; Thomas Wernberg; Erik Wapstra; Stephen E. Williams

doi:10.1126/science.aai9214

Review

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

View ORCID ProfileGretta T. Pecl¹,²,*,
View ORCID ProfileMiguel B. Araújo³,⁴,⁵,†,
Johann D. Bell⁶,⁷,
View ORCID ProfileJulia Blanchard¹,²,
Timothy C. Bonebrake⁸,
View ORCID ProfileI-Ching Chen⁹,
View ORCID ProfileTimothy D. Clark¹,¹⁰,
View ORCID ProfileRobert K. Colwell⁵,¹¹,¹²,¹³,
Finn Danielsen¹⁴,
View ORCID ProfileBirgitta Evengård¹⁵,
View ORCID ProfileLorena Falconi¹⁶,
View ORCID ProfileSimon Ferrier¹⁷,
View ORCID ProfileStewart Frusher¹,²,
View ORCID ProfileRaquel A. Garcia¹⁸,¹⁹,
Roger B. Griffis²⁰,
View ORCID ProfileAlistair J. Hobday²,²¹,
View ORCID ProfileCharlene Janion-Scheepers²²,
View ORCID ProfileMarta A. Jarzyna²³,
View ORCID ProfileSarah Jennings²,²⁴,
View ORCID ProfileJonathan Lenoir²⁵,
View ORCID ProfileHlif I. Linnetved²⁶,
View ORCID ProfileVictoria Y. Martin²⁷,
Phillipa C. McCormack²⁸,
View ORCID ProfileJan McDonald²,²⁸,
View ORCID ProfileNicola J. Mitchell²⁹,
View ORCID ProfileTero Mustonen³⁰,
View ORCID ProfileJohn M. Pandolfi³¹,
View ORCID ProfileNathalie Pettorelli³²,
View ORCID ProfileEkaterina Popova³³,
View ORCID ProfileSharon A. Robinson³⁴,
View ORCID ProfileBrett R. Scheffers³⁵,
Justine D. Shaw³⁶,
View ORCID ProfileCascade J. B. Sorte³⁷,
View ORCID ProfileJan M. Strugnell³⁸,³⁹,
Jennifer M. Sunday⁴⁰,
View ORCID ProfileMao-Ning Tuanmu⁴¹,
View ORCID ProfileAdriana Vergés⁴²,
View ORCID ProfileCecilia Villanueva¹,²,
View ORCID ProfileThomas Wernberg²⁹,⁴³,
View ORCID ProfileErik Wapstra⁴⁴,
Stephen E. Williams¹⁶

¹Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.
²Centre for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.
³Department of Biogeography and Global Change, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, 28006 Madrid, Spain.
⁴Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Geneticos, Universidade de Évora, 7000-890 Évora, Portugal.
⁵Department of Biology, Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, 2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark.
⁶Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, New South Wales 2522, Australia.
⁷Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science and Oceans, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA.
⁸School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
⁹Department of Life Sciences, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan, Republic of China.
¹⁰Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Agriculture and Food, Hobart, Tasmania 7000, Australia.
¹¹Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA.
¹²University of Colorado Museum of Natural History, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
¹³Departmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, CP 131, 74.001-970 Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil.
¹⁴NORDECO, Copenhagen DK-1159, Denmark.
¹⁵Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Clinical Microbiology, Umea University, 90187 Umea, Sweden.
¹⁶College of Marine and Environmental Science, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
¹⁷CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia.
¹⁸Centre for Statistics in Ecology, the Environment and Conservation, Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa.
¹⁹Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology, Faculty of Science, Stellenbosch University, Matieland 7602, South Africa.
²⁰National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries Service, Silver Spring, MD 20912, USA.
²¹CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania 7000, Australia.
²²Monash University, School of Biological Sciences, Clayton, Victoria 3800, Australia.
²³Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA.
²⁴Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.
²⁵EDYSAN (FRE 3498 CNRS-UPJV), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, 80037 Amiens Cedex 1, France.
²⁶Institute of Food and Resource Economics, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 25, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark.
²⁷School of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Lismore, New South Wales 2480, Australia.
²⁸Faculty of Law, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.
²⁹School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.
³⁰Snowchange Cooperative, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, FIN 80100 Finland.
³¹School of Biological Sciences, Autralian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia.
³²Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, NW1 4RY London, UK.
³³National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK.
³⁴Centre for Sustainable Ecosystem Solutions, School of Biological Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New South Wales 2522, Australia.
³⁵Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
³⁶Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia.
³⁷Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.
³⁸Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811 Queensland, Australia.
³⁹Department of Ecology, Environment and Evolution, School of Life Sciences, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria 3086, Australia.
⁴⁰Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada.
⁴¹Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei 115, Taiwan, Republic of China.
⁴²Centre for Marine Bio-Innovation and Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia.
⁴³Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia 6009, Australia.
⁴⁴School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

↵*Corresponding author. Email: gretta.pecl{at}utas.edu.au

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Science 31 Mar 2017:
Vol. 355, Issue 6332, eaai9214
DOI: 10.1126/science.aai9214

Gretta T. Pecl

1Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

2Centre for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

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For correspondence: gretta.pecl@utas.edu.au

Miguel B. Araújo

3Department of Biogeography and Global Change, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, 28006 Madrid, Spain.

4Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Geneticos, Universidade de Évora, 7000-890 Évora, Portugal.

5Department of Biology, Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, 2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark.

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Johann D. Bell

6Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, New South Wales 2522, Australia.

7Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science and Oceans, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA.

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Julia Blanchard

1Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

2Centre for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

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Timothy C. Bonebrake

8School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.

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I-Ching Chen

9Department of Life Sciences, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan, Republic of China.

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Timothy D. Clark

1Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

10Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Agriculture and Food, Hobart, Tasmania 7000, Australia.

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Robert K. Colwell

5Department of Biology, Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, 2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark.

11Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA.

12University of Colorado Museum of Natural History, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.

13Departmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, CP 131, 74.001-970 Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil.

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Finn Danielsen

14NORDECO, Copenhagen DK-1159, Denmark.

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Birgitta Evengård

15Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Clinical Microbiology, Umea University, 90187 Umea, Sweden.

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Lorena Falconi

16College of Marine and Environmental Science, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.

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Simon Ferrier

17CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia.

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Stewart Frusher

1Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

2Centre for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

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Raquel A. Garcia

18Centre for Statistics in Ecology, the Environment and Conservation, Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa.

19Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology, Faculty of Science, Stellenbosch University, Matieland 7602, South Africa.

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Roger B. Griffis

20National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries Service, Silver Spring, MD 20912, USA.

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Alistair J. Hobday

2Centre for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

21CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania 7000, Australia.

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Charlene Janion-Scheepers

22Monash University, School of Biological Sciences, Clayton, Victoria 3800, Australia.

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Marta A. Jarzyna

23Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA.

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Sarah Jennings

2Centre for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

24Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

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Jonathan Lenoir

25EDYSAN (FRE 3498 CNRS-UPJV), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, 80037 Amiens Cedex 1, France.

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Hlif I. Linnetved

26Institute of Food and Resource Economics, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 25, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark.

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Victoria Y. Martin

27School of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Lismore, New South Wales 2480, Australia.

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Phillipa C. McCormack

28Faculty of Law, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

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Jan McDonald

2Centre for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

28Faculty of Law, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

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Nicola J. Mitchell

29School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.

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Tero Mustonen

30Snowchange Cooperative, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, FIN 80100 Finland.

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John M. Pandolfi

31School of Biological Sciences, Autralian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia.

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Nathalie Pettorelli

32Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, NW1 4RY London, UK.

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Ekaterina Popova

33National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK.

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Sharon A. Robinson

34Centre for Sustainable Ecosystem Solutions, School of Biological Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New South Wales 2522, Australia.

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Brett R. Scheffers

35Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.

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Justine D. Shaw

36Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia.

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Cascade J. B. Sorte

37Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.

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Jan M. Strugnell

38Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811 Queensland, Australia.

39Department of Ecology, Environment and Evolution, School of Life Sciences, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria 3086, Australia.

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Jennifer M. Sunday

40Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada.

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Mao-Ning Tuanmu

41Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei 115, Taiwan, Republic of China.

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Adriana Vergés

42Centre for Marine Bio-Innovation and Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia.

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Cecilia Villanueva

1Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

2Centre for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

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Thomas Wernberg

29School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.

43Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia 6009, Australia.

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Erik Wapstra

44School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.

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Stephen E. Williams

16College of Marine and Environmental Science, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.

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