A new earthquake forecast for California

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Science  11 Aug 2017:
Vol. 357, Issue 6351, pp. 561
DOI: 10.1126/science.357.6351.561-b

Earthquakes cannot be predicted, but rupture models can estimate the regional likelihood of an earthquake within a certain time window. Field et al. incorporate new data and fault-based information for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). The new model better accounts for potential multiple fault ruptures and provides self-consistent forecasting windows from hours to more than a century. UCERF3 is an important development for operational forecasts that are vital for assessing the evolving seismic hazard in California.

Seismol. Res. Lett. 10.1785/0220170045 (2017).

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