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Predictive modeling of U.S. health care spending in late life

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Science  29 Jun 2018:
Vol. 360, Issue 6396, pp. 1462-1465
DOI: 10.1126/science.aar5045
  • Fig. 1 Concentration of spending on the ex post dead.

    Shown are mortality rates and decedent share of total Medicare spending for various time intervals after 1 January 2008. Data are for the entire baseline sample (n = 5,631,168). Spending for survivors is measured in the time interval since 1 January 2008. For decedents, we report two spending measures: backfilled, which measures spending looking backward from the date of death for the length of the relevant interval (for example, for the 1-year measure, we measure spending over the 12 months before death), and unadjusted, which measures spending looking forward over the relevant time interval since 1 January 2008.

  • Fig. 2 Distribution of predicted mortality.

    The distribution of predicted annual mortality from 1 January 2008 is shown. Data are from the test subsample (n = 1,877,168). The inset provides more detail about the corresponding section of the distribution.

  • Fig. 3 Concentration of spending by ex ante mortality.

    For each level of predicted annual mortality (x axis), the share of total annual Medicare spending accounted for by individuals with predicted mortality of that value or greater is shown. Each bar stacks the share accounted for by decedents (black) and by survivors (gray), so that the height of the bar represents total annual Medicare spending accounted for by individuals (decedents and survivors) with predicted mortality of that value or greater. All results use the backfilled measure of decedent spending. All data are from the test subsample. The inset provides more detail about the corresponding section of the distribution.

  • Fig. 4 Spending by predicted mortality.

    (A) Kernel density of total Medicare spending in the 12 months after 1 January 2008 against predicted annual mortality. (B) Kernel density of Medicare spending separately for survivors and decedents. Spending measures are as defined in Fig. 1. All data are from the test subsample.

Supplementary Materials

  • Predictive modeling of U.S. health care spending in late life

    Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Sendhil Mullainathan, Ziad Obermeyer

    Materials/Methods, Supplementary Text, Tables, Figures, and/or References

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    • Materials and Methods 
    • Supplementary Text
    • Figs. S1 to S9
    • Tables S1 to S6
    • References 

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