Global modeling of nature’s contributions to people

Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer; Richard P. Sharp; Charlotte Weil; Elena M. Bennett; Unai Pascual; Katie K. Arkema; Kate A. Brauman; Benjamin P. Bryant; Anne D. Guerry; Nick M. Haddad; Maike Hamann; Perrine Hamel; Justin A. Johnson; Lisa Mandle; Henrique M. Pereira; Stephen Polasky; Mary Ruckelshaus; M. Rebecca Shaw; Jessica M. Silver; Adrian L. Vogl; Gretchen C. Daily

doi:10.1126/science.aaw3372

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Global modeling of nature’s contributions to people

View ORCID ProfileRebecca Chaplin-Kramer¹,²,*,
View ORCID ProfileRichard P. Sharp¹,
View ORCID ProfileCharlotte Weil¹,
View ORCID ProfileElena M. Bennett³,
View ORCID ProfileUnai Pascual⁴,⁵,⁶,
View ORCID ProfileKatie K. Arkema¹,⁷,
View ORCID ProfileKate A. Brauman²,
View ORCID ProfileBenjamin P. Bryant¹,⁸,
View ORCID ProfileAnne D. Guerry¹,⁷,
View ORCID ProfileNick M. Haddad⁹,
View ORCID ProfileMaike Hamann²,¹⁰,
View ORCID ProfilePerrine Hamel¹,
Justin A. Johnson²,
View ORCID ProfileLisa Mandle¹,
View ORCID ProfileHenrique M. Pereira ¹¹,¹²,¹³,
View ORCID ProfileStephen Polasky¹⁴,
View ORCID ProfileMary Ruckelshaus¹,⁷,
View ORCID ProfileM. Rebecca Shaw¹⁵,
View ORCID ProfileJessica M. Silver¹,⁷,
View ORCID ProfileAdrian L. Vogl¹,
View ORCID ProfileGretchen C. Daily ¹,¹⁶

¹Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
²Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.
³Department of Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University, Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue, Québec H9X 3V9, Canada.
⁴Basque Centre for Climate Change, Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, 48940 Leioa, Bilbao, Spain.
⁵Basque Foundation for Science, Ikerbasque, 48013 Bilbao, Spain.
⁶Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.
⁷School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
⁸Water in the West, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
⁹Kellogg Biological Station, Department of Integrative Biology, Hickory Corners, MI 49060, USA.
¹⁰Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA.
¹¹German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06108 Halle, Germany.
¹²Institut für Biologie, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06112 Halle, Germany.
¹³CIBIO (Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources)–InBIO (Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology), Universidade do Porto, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal.
¹⁴Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.
¹⁵World Wildlife Fund, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA.
¹⁶Center for Conservation Biology, Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

↵*Corresponding author. Email: bchaplin{at}stanford.edu

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Science 11 Oct 2019:
Vol. 366, Issue 6462, pp. 255-258
DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw3372

Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer

1Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

2Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.

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For correspondence: bchaplin@stanford.edu

Richard P. Sharp

1Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

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Charlotte Weil

1Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

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Elena M. Bennett

3Department of Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University, Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue, Québec H9X 3V9, Canada.

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Unai Pascual

4Basque Centre for Climate Change, Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, 48940 Leioa, Bilbao, Spain.

5Basque Foundation for Science, Ikerbasque, 48013 Bilbao, Spain.

6Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.

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Katie K. Arkema

1Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

7School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.

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Kate A. Brauman

2Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.

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Benjamin P. Bryant

1Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

8Water in the West, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

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Anne D. Guerry

1Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

7School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.

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Nick M. Haddad

9Kellogg Biological Station, Department of Integrative Biology, Hickory Corners, MI 49060, USA.

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Maike Hamann

2Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.

10Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA.

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Perrine Hamel

1Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

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Justin A. Johnson

2Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.

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Lisa Mandle

1Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

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Henrique M. Pereira

11German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06108 Halle, Germany.

12Institut für Biologie, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06112 Halle, Germany.

13CIBIO (Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources)–InBIO (Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology), Universidade do Porto, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal.

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Stephen Polasky

14Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.

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Mary Ruckelshaus

1Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

7School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.

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M. Rebecca Shaw

15World Wildlife Fund, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA.

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Jessica M. Silver

1Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

7School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.

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Adrian L. Vogl

1Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

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Gretchen C. Daily

1Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

16Center for Conservation Biology, Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

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The future of nature's contributions

A recent Global Assessment by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services has emphasized the urgent need to determine where and how nature's contribution matters most to people. Chaplin-Kramer et al. have developed a globalscale modeling of ecosystem services, focusing on water quality regulation, coastal protection, and crop pollination (see the Perspective by Balvanera). By 2050, up to 5 billion people may be at risk from diminishing ecosystem services, particularly in Africa and South Asia.

Science, this issue p. 255; see also p. 184

http://www.sciencemag.org/about/science-licenses-journal-article-reuse

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Global modeling of nature’s contributions to people

The future of nature's contributions

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