Global modeling of nature’s contributions to people

Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer; Richard P. Sharp; Charlotte Weil; Elena M. Bennett; Unai Pascual; Katie K. Arkema; Kate A. Brauman; Benjamin P. Bryant; Anne D. Guerry; Nick M. Haddad; Maike Hamann; Perrine Hamel; Justin A. Johnson; Lisa Mandle; Henrique M. Pereira; Stephen Polasky; Mary Ruckelshaus; M. Rebecca Shaw; Jessica M. Silver; Adrian L. Vogl; Gretchen C. Daily

doi:10.1126/science.aaw3372

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Global modeling of nature’s contributions to people

Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer¹,²,*,
Richard P. Sharp¹,
Charlotte Weil¹,
Elena M. Bennett³,
Unai Pascual⁴,⁵,⁶,
Katie K. Arkema¹,⁷,
Kate A. Brauman²,
Benjamin P. Bryant¹,⁸,
Anne D. Guerry¹,⁷,
Nick M. Haddad⁹,
Maike Hamann²,¹⁰,
Perrine Hamel¹,
Justin A. Johnson²,
Lisa Mandle¹,
Henrique M. Pereira ¹¹,¹²,¹³,
Stephen Polasky¹⁴,
Mary Ruckelshaus¹,⁷,
M. Rebecca Shaw¹⁵,
Jessica M. Silver¹,⁷,
Adrian L. Vogl¹,
Gretchen C. Daily ¹,¹⁶

¹Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
²Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.
³Department of Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University, Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue, Québec H9X 3V9, Canada.
⁴Basque Centre for Climate Change, Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, 48940 Leioa, Bilbao, Spain.
⁵Basque Foundation for Science, Ikerbasque, 48013 Bilbao, Spain.
⁶Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.
⁷School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
⁸Water in the West, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
⁹Kellogg Biological Station, Department of Integrative Biology, Hickory Corners, MI 49060, USA.
¹⁰Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA.
¹¹German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06108 Halle, Germany.
¹²Institut für Biologie, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06112 Halle, Germany.
¹³CIBIO (Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources)–InBIO (Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology), Universidade do Porto, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal.
¹⁴Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.
¹⁵World Wildlife Fund, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA.
¹⁶Center for Conservation Biology, Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

↵*Corresponding author. Email: bchaplin{at}stanford.edu

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Science 11 Oct 2019:
Vol. 366, Issue 6462, pp. 255-258
DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw3372

Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer

Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.

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For correspondence: bchaplin@stanford.edu

Richard P. Sharp

Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

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Charlotte Weil

Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

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Elena M. Bennett

Department of Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University, Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue, Québec H9X 3V9, Canada.

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Unai Pascual

Basque Centre for Climate Change, Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, 48940 Leioa, Bilbao, Spain.Basque Foundation for Science, Ikerbasque, 48013 Bilbao, Spain.Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.

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Katie K. Arkema

Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.

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Kate A. Brauman

Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.

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Benjamin P. Bryant

Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.Water in the West, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

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Anne D. Guerry

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Nick M. Haddad

Kellogg Biological Station, Department of Integrative Biology, Hickory Corners, MI 49060, USA.

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Maike Hamann

Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA.

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Perrine Hamel

Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

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Justin A. Johnson

Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.

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Lisa Mandle

Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

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Henrique M. Pereira

German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06108 Halle, Germany.Institut für Biologie, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06112 Halle, Germany.CIBIO (Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources)–InBIO (Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology), Universidade do Porto, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal.

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Stephen Polasky

Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.

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Mary Ruckelshaus

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M. Rebecca Shaw

World Wildlife Fund, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA.

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Jessica M. Silver

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Adrian L. Vogl

Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

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Gretchen C. Daily

Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.Center for Conservation Biology, Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

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The future of nature's contributions

A recent Global Assessment by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services has emphasized the urgent need to determine where and how nature's contribution matters most to people. Chaplin-Kramer et al. have developed a globalscale modeling of ecosystem services, focusing on water quality regulation, coastal protection, and crop pollination (see the Perspective by Balvanera). By 2050, up to 5 billion people may be at risk from diminishing ecosystem services, particularly in Africa and South Asia.

Science, this issue p. 255; see also p. 184

http://www.sciencemag.org/about/science-licenses-journal-article-reuse

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Global modeling of nature’s contributions to people

The future of nature's contributions

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