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Climate change contributes to widespread declines among bumble bees across continents

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Science  07 Feb 2020:
Vol. 367, Issue 6478, pp. 685-688
DOI: 10.1126/science.aax8591
  • Fig. 1 Change in community-averaged measures from the baseline (1901–1974) to the recent period (2000–2015).

    Local changes in (A) thermal and (B) precipitation position indices are shown. Increases indicate warmer or wetter regions and that, on average, species in a given assemblage are closer to their hot or wet limits than they have been historically. Declines indicate cooling or drying regions and that, on average, species in a given assemblage are closer to their cold or wet limits than they have been historically.

  • Fig. 2 Percent change in site occupancy since a baseline period (1901–1974) for 35 North American and 36 European bumble bee species.

  • Fig. 3 Change in probability of occupancy in response to change in thermal and precipitation position from the baseline (1901–1974) to the recent period (2000–2014).

    Thermal (A) and precipitation (B) positions range from 0 to 1, with 1 indicating that conditions at a site are at a species’s hot or wet limit for the entire year and 0 meaning that conditions are at a species’s cold or dry limit for the entire year during the historic period. For ease of visualizing the significant interaction between baseline thermal position and change in thermal position, the continuous baseline thermal position variable has been split at the first and third quantile to show sites that were historically close to species’ hot limits (red; n = 969 sites), cold limits (blue; n = 2244 sites), and the middle of their observed climatic limits (purple; n = 11,793 sites). Rug plots show the distribution of observations. Confidence intervals (±95%) are shown around linear trendlines.

  • Fig. 4 Climate change–related change in bumble bee species richness from a baseline (1901–1974) to a recent period (2000–2014).

    Predictions are from a model projecting percent change in detection-corrected bumble bee species richness as a function of mean community-averaged thermal and precipitation position.

Supplementary Materials

  • Climate change contributes to widespread declines among bumble bees across continents

    Peter Soroye, Tim Newbold, Jeremy Kerr

    Materials/Methods, Supplementary Text, Tables, Figures, and/or References

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    • Materials and Methods 
    • Supplementary Text
    • Supplementary Acknowledgments
    • Figs. S1 to S13
    • Tables S1 to S8
    • References 

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