In DepthAtmospheric Science

Hidden predictability in winds could improve climate forecasts

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Science  31 Jul 2020:
Vol. 369, Issue 6503, pp. 490-491
DOI: 10.1126/science.369.6503.490

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Summary

A new analysis has found that changes in large-scale wind patterns driven by global warming are far more predictable than once thought, raising hopes for improved projections of regional climate change and rainfall. However, the study also finds that current climate models are failing to represent the atmospheric and ocean dynamics that drive this predictability, leaving their forecasts unreliable for trends influenced by the atmospheric circulation. Modelers have not yet diagnosed what their code is missing. One hypothesis is that they fail to capture feedbacks into overall wind patterns from individual weather systems. But the problem could also reflect poor rendering of the stratosphere, or of interactions between the ocean and atmosphere.

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