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A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2

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Science  14 Aug 2020:
Vol. 369, Issue 6505, pp. 846-849
DOI: 10.1126/science.abc6810
  • Fig. 1 Overall fraction infected over time.

    Shown is a plot of the overall fraction infected over time for the age and activity structured community with R0 = 2.5 for four different preventive levels inserted 15 March (day 30) and lifted 30 June (day 135). The blue, red, yellow, and purple curves correspond to no, light, moderate, and severe preventive measures, respectively.

  • Fig. 2 Cumulative fraction infected over time.

    Shown is a plot of the cumulative fraction infected over time for the age and activity structured community and R0 = 2.5 for four different preventive levels inserted 15 March (day 30) and lifted 30 June (day 135). The blue, red, yellow, and purple curves correspond to no, light, moderate, and severe preventive measures, respectively.

  • Table 1 Disease-induced herd immunity level hD and classical herd immunity level hC for different population structures.

    Numbers correspond to percentages.

    Population structureR0 = 2.0R0 = 2.5R0 = 3.0
    hDhChDhChDhC
    Homogeneous50.050.060.060.066.766.7
    Age structure46.050.055.860.062.566.7
    Activity structure37.750.046.360.052.566.7
    Age and activity structure34.650.043.060.049.166.7
  • Table 2 Final outcome fractions infected in different groups.

    These values assume that R0 = 2.5 and preventive measures are put in place such that α = α* just barely reaching herd immunity for R0 = 2.5. Population structure includes both age and activity. Numbers correspond to percentages.

    Age groupLow activityAverage activityHigh activity
    0–5 years17.632.153.9
    6–12 years25.844.969.7
    13–19 years31.452.977.8
    20–39 years27.447.272.1
    40–59 years22.840.364.4
    ≥60 years14.627.046.7

Supplementary Materials

  • A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2

    Tom Britton, Frank Ball, Pieter Trapman

    Materials/Methods, Supplementary Text, Tables, Figures, and/or References

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    • Materials and Methods
    • Figs. S1 to S3
    • Table S1
    • References
    MDAR Reproducibility Checklist

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