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A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2

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Science  23 Jun 2020:
eabc6810
DOI: 10.1126/science.abc6810
  • Fig. 1

    Plot of the overall fraction infected over time for the age and activity structured community with R0 = 2.5, for four different preventive levels inserted March 15 (day 30) and lifted June 30 (day 135). The blue, red, yellow and purple curves correspond to no, light, moderate, and severe preventive measures, respectively.

  • Fig. 2

    Plot of the cumulative fraction infected over time for the age and activity structured community and R0 = 2.5, for a four different preventive levels inserted March 15 and lifted June 30. The blue curve corresponds to no preventive measures, the red with light preventive measure, the yellow to moderate preventive measures and the purple corresponding to severe preventive measures.

  • Table 1 Disease-induced herd immunity level hD and classical herd immunity level hC for different population structures.

    Numbers correspond to percentages.

    R0 = 2.0R0 = 2.5R0 = 3.0
    Population structurehDhChDhChDhC
    Homogeneous50.050.060.060.066.766.7
    Age structure46.050.055.860.062.566.7
    Activity structure37.750.046.360.052.566.7
    Age and activity structure34.650.043.060.049.166.7
  • Table 2 Final outcome fractions infected in different groups.

    Assuming R0 = 2.5 and preventive measures put in place such that α = α* just barely reaching herd immunity for R0 = 2.5. Population structure includes both age and activity and fractions infected are given as percentages.

    Age groupLow activityAverage activityHigh activity
    0–5 years17.632.153.9
    6–12 years25.844.969.7
    13–19 years31.452.977.8
    20–39 years27.447.272.1
    40–59 years22.840.364.4
    ≥60 years14.627.046.7

Supplementary Materials

  • A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2

    Tom Britton, Frank Ball, Pieter Trapman

    Materials/Methods, Supplementary Text, Tables, Figures, and/or References

    Download Supplement
    • Materials and Methods
    • Figs. S1 to S3
    • Table S1
    • References
    MDAR Reproducibility Checklist

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