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Abstract
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Containing Pandemic Influenza at the Source
Ira M. Longini Jr., Azhar Nizam, Shufu Xu, Kumnuan Ungchusak, Wanna Hanshaoworakul, Derek A. T. Cummings, M. Elizabeth Halloran

Supporting Online Material

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This supplement contains:

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Figs. S1 to S19
Tables S1 to S7
References
Movies S1 to S3
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  • Movie S1.
    Simulation of two epidemics of a newly emergent influenza strain on the geographic space of 500,000 people in rural SE Asia. The no intervention and interventions epidemics are single stochastic realizations when R0 = 1.4. The intervention is 80% TAP initiated 14 days after the first detected case. Both the no intervention and intervention epidemics are started with the same initially infected person, and the starting random seed is the same for both stochastic realizations. Thus, the intervention shows what would happen under the same circumstances that produced a large epidemic with no intervention. The left two panels display the two simulated epidemic curves (i.e., number of new cases per day), and the right two panels display the corresponding epidemics on the maps. Dots representing people are drawn on the maps, with yellow dots for infected people and blue dots for recovered or dead people.
  • Movie S2.
    The simulated epidemic curves in each locality from a single realization of an epidemic of a newly emergent influenza strain with no intervention when R0 = 1.4. This is the same realization as given in the top panels of Movie S1.
  • Movie S3.
    The simulated epidemic curves in each locality from a single realization of an epidemic a newly emergent influenza strain with the intervention is 80% TAP initiated 14 days after the first detected case when R0 = 1.4. This is the same realization as given in the bottom panels of Movie S1.