PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Goswami, B. N.
AU  - Venugopal, V.
AU  - Sengupta, D.
AU  - Madhusoodanan, M. S.
AU  - Xavier, Prince K.
TI  - Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment
AID  - 10.1126/science.1132027
DP  - 2006 Dec 01
TA  - Science
PG  - 1442--1445
VI  - 314
IP  - 5804
4099  - http://science.sciencemag.org/content/314/5804/1442.short
4100  - http://science.sciencemag.org/content/314/5804/1442.full
SO  - Science2006 Dec 01; 314
AB  - Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.