RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment
JF Science
JO Science
FD American Association for the Advancement of Science
SP 1442
OP 1445
DO 10.1126/science.1132027
VO 314
IS 5804
A1 Goswami, B. N.
A1 Venugopal, V.
A1 Sengupta, D.
A1 Madhusoodanan, M. S.
A1 Xavier, Prince K.
YR 2006
UL http://science.sciencemag.org/content/314/5804/1442.abstract
AB Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.